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Reeves blinked on income tax and chose fiscal drag instead
(UPDATED) The Budget on 26 November 2025 delivered around £26bn of tax rises, but not via the headline rate hike Starmer was telegraphing earlier in the month. The Chancellor instead extended frozen thresholds to 2030-31 and stitched together a "smorgasbord" of smaller measures. Tax-to-GDP is heading to a post-war high of 38%. Fiscal headroom doubled to around £22bn, which is still only 0.6% of GDP and thin against forecast volatility. The detail is where it bites: 2pp uplift
Yiwang Lim
Oct 25, 20253 min read
Reeves blinked on income tax and chose fiscal drag instead
(UPDATED) The Budget on 26 November 2025 delivered around £26bn of tax rises, but not via the headline rate hike Starmer was telegraphing earlier in the month. The Chancellor instead extended frozen thresholds to 2030-31 and stitched together a "smorgasbord" of smaller measures. Tax-to-GDP is heading to a post-war high of 38%. Fiscal headroom doubled to around £22bn, which is still only 0.6% of GDP and thin against forecast volatility. The detail is where it bites: 2pp uplift
Yiwang Lim
Oct 25, 20253 min read
Deel raises $300m at $17.3bn despite spy saga — what the numbers say
Deel closed a $300m Series E on 16 October 2025 at a $17.3bn valuation; investors include Ribbit, a16z and Coatue. Scale looks real: management flagged ~US$1bn ARR run-rate in Q1 with ~75% YoY growth and 16% EBITDA margin. On that basis, the round implies ~17x ARR. Legal overhang remains from Rippling’s espionage allegations, but backers doubled down; rivalry is now a valuation and execution race. What happened On 16 October 2025, Deel announced a $300m raise at a $17.3bn val
Yiwang Lim
Oct 19, 20252 min read
AI private valuations and $1tn of mark-ups with unit economics still unproven
Private AI valuations have exploded while revenue remains concentrated and infra costs are heavy. I would prefer picks and shovels or disciplined co-invest alongside apps with clear payback, not 100x ARR at seed. What happened On 17 October 2025, reporting highlighted that ten lossmaking AI start-ups including OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI have added almost $1tn in value over the past 12 months, with US VCs deploying $161bn into AI year to date. Early-stage AI apps with about $5m
Yiwang Lim
Oct 16, 20252 min read
Peak social? The data says… probably
GWI data (via the FT) shows global time on social peaked in 2022 and was ~10% lower by end-2024; the drop is sharpest in...
Yiwang Lim
Oct 5, 20252 min read
“Apply AI”: Brussels’ sovereignty push meets industrial reality
The Commission will unveil “Apply AI” on 7 October 2025, pushing European-made (often open-source) tools into healthcare, defence and...
Yiwang Lim
Sep 28, 20252 min read
Blackstone sniffs around Big Yellow — what the 20% pop really prices in
Blackstone is weighing a cash offer for Big Yellow; shares jumped ~20% on 13 October but still trade at ~0.89x EPRA NTA. FY25 numbers show a conservative balance sheet (c.13% LTV) and a London-heavy, high-rent estate — catnip for private capital. A “put up or shut up” deadline of 10 November comes before the UK Budget on 26 November — both are catalysts for the stock. What happened On 13 October 2025, the FT reported that Blackstone is in early-stage diligence on a possible c
Yiwang Lim
Sep 24, 20252 min read
Ferrari blinks on EVs — growth reset or smart brand protection?
Ferrari cut its 2030 EV mix goal to 20% and guided to slower profit growth; shares fell sharply. Financial targets still imply best-in-class margins (EBIT ≥30%, EBITDA ≥40%) and strong FCF, but at a lower growth cadence. Strategy leans into scarcity, hybrids and capital returns; I think that’s rational for the brand, but it warrants a lower multiple than “hyper-growth luxury tech”. What happened On 9 October 2025 Ferrari halved its 2030 fully-electric mix target (to 20% from
Yiwang Lim
Sep 21, 20252 min read
Harvey at $5bn: can AI finally change the billable hour?
Harvey hit ~$100m ARR and raised $300m at a $5bn valuation (23 June 2025), implying ~50x ARR. A new LexisNexis alliance (18 June 2025)...
Yiwang Lim
Sep 15, 20252 min read
Amazon’s ‘Prime Vision’: smart data or screen clutter?
Amazon is rolling out an AR-heavy “Prime Vision” feed for UK Champions League matches from 16 September 2025; think EA FC-style overlays...
Yiwang Lim
Sep 11, 20253 min read
Europe’s late-stage thaw: AI and defence fuel a valuation mini-boom
Growth/secondary deals are back in Europe, led by AI apps and defence; some prices look punchy versus fundamentals. I’m leaning “quality...
Yiwang Lim
Sep 7, 20252 min read
AI + climate tech: promise, payback, and the procurement gap
Stern-led, peer-reviewed study estimates AI could abate 3.2–5.4 Gt CO₂e annually by 2035 across power, transport and food — potentially...
Yiwang Lim
Sep 3, 20252 min read
Legacy auto’s software pivot: high capex, slow payback
FT’s 28 Aug deep-dive shows incumbents still lag digital-native OEMs; Toyota’s Arene rollout looks incremental, not transformative. But...
Yiwang Lim
Jun 22, 20252 min read
Europe’s software edge is hiding in plain sight
European software demand is growing faster than the economy, with software the fastest-growing IT segment in 2024–25. Cloud migration...
Yiwang Lim
Jun 21, 20252 min read
Iconiq’s megacheque into Anthropic: impressive growth, punchy multiple
FT said on 29 July that Iconiq would lead a $5bn round valuing Anthropic at ~$170bn; two weeks later the raise landed at ~$13bn, valuing...
Yiwang Lim
Jun 20, 20252 min read
Microsoft’s carbon removals land-grab: catalytic or concentration risk?
Microsoft now dominates engineered carbon removals (c.80% of lifetime tech-based credits; 92% of H1-2025 purchases), paying well above...
Yiwang Lim
Jun 18, 20252 min read
Algorithms over atoms: why quantum software is having its moment
Phasecraft raised $34m to push quantum algorithms into real-world materials and optimisation use-cases; UK/Europe angles are getting...
Yiwang Lim
Jun 18, 20252 min read
Microsoft’s “AI diagnostician” beat doctors on NEJM cases. Impressive demo — but miles from clinic
Microsoft’s MAI-DxO solved 85.5% of 304 NEJM case challenges vs c.20% for experienced physicians in a constrained setup; not...
Yiwang Lim
Jun 16, 20252 min read
Training Europe’s clinicians for the data era — SUSA is a small but smart start
EU-backed SUSA will embed advanced digital skills into 46 degree programmes and 16 mid-career modules, targeting ~6.6k graduates plus 660...
Yiwang Lim
Jun 15, 20252 min read
The Audit AI Arms Race: Who Keeps Watch While the Robots Work?
The Big Four are deploying generative and agentic AI into live audit workflows in 2026, with EY and KPMG both updating core platforms this month The UK's FRC became the first audit regulator globally to publish guidance on gen/agentic AI in audit, in late March 2026 — but guidance is not rules, and the codification is still nascent The PCAOB, the US equivalent, has had its 2026 budget cut 9.4%, enforcement has collapsed, and there is live legislative risk of abolition — at pr
Yiwang Lim
Jun 14, 20253 min read
The FRC Blinks: Is Lighter-Touch Audit Enforcement a Risk Mispriced by the Market?
The FRC launched a consultation on 1 October 2025 to overhaul its audit enforcement regime, raising investigation thresholds and adding three new resolution routes. The reforms arrive as the Audit Reform Bill has been quietly shelved, leaving the FRC in regulatory limbo with no clear successor body on the horizon. Two senior enforcement figures are leaving simultaneously — a leadership gap that investors in UK-listed companies and audit-dependent PE portfolios should watch ca
Yiwang Lim
Jun 13, 20254 min read
KPMG's 600-Job Cull: When Profit and Headcount Can't Both Keep Rising
KPMG UK is cutting close to 600 roles — roughly 440 assistant-manager auditors and 120 advisory staff — as low attrition bloats its junior bench and client pipelines stay thin. The firm delivered a strong profit result (£576mn PBT, +14%), but that improvement was driven almost entirely by cost-cutting, not revenue growth. The Big Four face a structural reckoning: a post-pandemic hangover in consulting demand, AI disrupting traditional advisory work, and a UK market that shran
Yiwang Lim
Jun 12, 20254 min read
The Mid-Tier Squeeze: Why UK Accounting's Second Tier Is Eating the Big Four's Lunch
Mid-tier partner pay hit a record £565,000 average in 2024 — nearly two-thirds of the Big Four average, up from 45% a decade ago PE capital is turbocharing mid-tier consolidation, with Cinven backing Grant Thornton at an implied ~£1.5bn valuation Regulatory ring-fencing of Big Four audit practices and a consulting slowdown have structurally redirected mandates downmarket — and the mid-tier is capturing the margin What Happened According to a Financial Times analysis published
Yiwang Lim
Jun 10, 20253 min read
BDO's "Project Velvet" and the Coming End of the Federated Accounting Firm
BDO — the world's fifth-largest accounting network by revenue — is overhauling its 60-year-old federated structure, starting with regional cluster mergers and a UK/Ireland combination codenamed "Project Velvet." The push is driven by multinational client pressure for seamless cross-border service and the need to deploy AI tooling at scale — neither easy in a patchwork of 160-plus independent national partnerships. BDO has formally ruled out external PE investment for now, but
Yiwang Lim
Jun 9, 20254 min read
Sumer's £1bn Ambition: Fair Price or Frothy Peak?
Sumer, a sub-three-year-old accounting consolidator, has hired boutique adviser Continuum to explore a full sale targeting a £1bn valuation — but industry advisers suggest £700m is closer to fair value. The deal would test how much premium PE buyers will pay for a "semi-integrated" buy-and-build platform versus a fully absorbed consolidator. The wider sector is running hot: 19 PE-backed accounting platforms now operate in the UK, and some early consolidators have already stru
Yiwang Lim
Jun 8, 20253 min read
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