Viral Dubai Chocolate Bar Fuels Global Pistachio Shortage: A Sweet Disruption in Commodity Markets

A luxury pistachio-filled chocolate bar from Dubai has done more than tantalise taste buds — it’s sent shockwaves through the global commodity markets.

The now-famous “Can’t Get Knafeh of It” bar, created by boutique Emirati chocolatier FIX, has become a global obsession following a TikTok video that exploded to over 120 million views since December 2023. What began as a local indulgence — combining pistachio cream, kataifi (a Middle Eastern shredded pastry), and milk chocolate — has evolved into a social media-fuelled craze with significant macroeconomic consequences.

Pistachio Prices Surge on Tight Supply

Since the viral boom, pistachio kernel prices have jumped by over 34% year-on-year, climbing from $7.65/lb in early 2024 to around $10.30/lb today. According to nut trader CG Hacking, “the pistachio world is basically tapped out.”

The sudden demand hit a market already constrained by a poor 2024 harvest in California, the world’s leading pistachio exporter. The US crop yielded approximately 1.1 billion pounds, down significantly from prior years, largely due to alternate bearing cycles and climatic pressures. Worse still, a larger share of the yield was sold in-shell, reducing the availability of shelled kernels used in confections and processed foods — the very type Dubai chocolate requires.

Meanwhile, Iran, the second-largest producer globally, saw pistachio exports to the UAE surge by 40% in the six months to March 2025 compared to the full 12 months prior. However, this redirection of supply hasn’t fully alleviated the global shortage.

A $4.5 Billion Market in Flux

The global pistachio market, valued at $4.46 billion in 2025, is growing at a CAGR of 5.7%, but this unexpected demand spike has outpaced even the most bullish forecasts. Chocolate giants like Lindt and Läderach have scrambled to launch their own pistachio-cream offerings. In the UK, Lindt’s bar is retailing at £10 for just 145g, more than double the cost of their standard lines. Supermarkets including Waitrose and Morrisons have even implemented purchase limits per customer due to shortages.

In California, some almond growers have started transitioning acreage to pistachios in pursuit of better margins. However, pistachio trees take 4–7 years to reach maturity, meaning the supply response won’t be felt until late 2026 or beyond — a textbook case of inelastic agricultural supply.

MY PERSPECTIVE: A Sweet Lesson in Market Fragility

From an investor’s lens, this episode is a fascinating example of how non-traditional demand shocks — in this case driven by virality, not fundamentals — can roil global supply chains. In a world increasingly influenced by social media, the pistachio case presents an emergent risk factor for commodity markets: digital demand volatility.

Much like how meme stocks distorted equity markets in 2021, the Dubai chocolate bar reveals how consumer trends on platforms like TikTok can rapidly and unpredictably impact real-world prices and supply dynamics. For portfolio managers and commodity traders, this raises two key considerations:

1. Sentiment monitoring tools may become as critical for agri-commodities as they are for equities. The digital ecosystem can manufacture demand far faster than supply chains can react.

2. The situation exemplifies a broader point about supply chain fragility and the limits of just-in-time sourcing models, particularly in luxury FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods).

Furthermore, this could be a precursor to a wave of alternative commodity investing in niche segments — such as pistachio futures, if liquidity ever deepens — or vertical integration from downstream brands seeking to secure ingredient sources.

Lastly, there are inflationary implications. Pistachio and cocoa prices are both surging (the latter has nearly tripled in the past year), which may drive chocolate brands to shrinkflation, reformulation, or premium repositioning — trends investors in consumer staples should watch closely.

Conclusion

The Dubai chocolate craze may appear trivial at first glance — a viral dessert reshaping pistachio prices. But it tells a much bigger story about how digitally driven demand can ripple across global trade, influence commodity prices, and stress-test supply chains in real-time.

As digital culture fuses with physical markets, the lines between trend and trade are blurring fast. Investors would do well to pay attention — even to the sweet stuff.