EQT’s Contrarian Bet on America

When most LPs are trimming their US private-equity exposure, Stockholm-based EQT AB (€273 bn AUM) is gearing up to do the opposite. Founder-chair Conni Jonsson told the FT that “everybody is running away from the US – that might be a good time for us to do more”. Below is my quick take on why the Swedes might be onto something – and the key risks to watch.

Why the timing looks attractive

• Valuations & exits under pressure. Bain counts c.30 000 unsold PE-backed companies worth US$3.6 trn, and 2024 distributions (DPI) fell to just 11 % of NAV – the weakest since the GFC. Global fundraising dropped >20 %, with US buyout capital 65 % lower in Q1-25 YoY.

• Policy jitters repel capital. April’s blanket US tariffs plus carried-interest tax chatter have pushed several public schemes to pause new US commitments.

• Infra holds up. Buyout fundraising slumped, but infrastructure stayed flat at c.US$89 bn in 2024 – a rare bright spot. EQT just closed Infrastructure VI at €21.5 bn, the biggest infra vehicle so far this year.

What EQT is doing

Move	Detail	Why it matters
Re-weight to infra	Infra already ≈⅓ of AUM and could overtake buyout.	CPI-linked cashflows smooth IRR and fee base.
Add US platforms	Deals include Crown Castle small-cells and Seven Seas Water.	Digital infra + water = secular growth, tariff-resilient.
Scale on-shore	M&A or hiring to bulk up beyond NY & SF hubs.	Better origination, less reliance on intermediaries.

MY VIEW

1. Contrarian entry point. Mid-market EV/EBITDA has compressed ~1–2 turns since 2021; fewer buyers means better pricing power.

2. Infra hedge. Data-centre power, desalination, small-cell leases – all quasi-regulated, inflation-linked revenues.

3. LP appeal. European schemes still over-allocated to PE (denominator effect) and may pivot to infra for lower volatility.

4. Execution risk. EQT’s headcount tripled to 2 000 since IPO – integrating US bolt-ons without culture drag is heavy lifting.

5. Regulatory fog. Carried-interest reforms on both sides of the Atlantic could nip net returns.

Bottom line

I like the asymmetry: US dealflow is there, capital competition is not. If EQT can marry European discipline with American scale – and keep infra cash yields rolling – the risk-reward looks skewed to the upside. As ever, this is commentary, not advice; I hold no position in EQT AB.